The New York Giants (2-10) and New England Patriots (10-2) are set to clash in a highly anticipated NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football matchup at Gillette Stadium on December 1, 2025. This game not only marks the conclusion of Week 13 but also presents a fascinating contrast in team form, player matchups, and betting trends. The Patriots, riding a nine-game winning streak and vying for the AFC’s top seed, enter as heavy favorites against a Giants team struggling to find consistency. However, with key players returning from injury and a history of covering spreads as underdogs, the Giants could offer surprising resistance.

Below, we break down the latest odds, expert predictions, player matchups, and betting trends to help you make informed decisions for this primetime showdown.

Current Odds and Betting Lines

The Patriots are a 7.5-point favorite over the Giants, with the moneyline set at New England -430 and New York +340. The over/under for total points scored is 46.5, reflecting expectations of a moderately high-scoring game. Despite the Patriots’ dominance this season, the Giants have shown resilience against the spread, covering in 6 of their last 9 games and 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with better records. This has led to a notable split in betting trends: while the public favors New England, sharp bettors are leaning toward the Giants to cover the spread.

According to BetMGM Sportsbook, the Patriots are favored by 7.5 points, with the over/under set at 46.5. SportsLine’s projection model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, gives the Patriots a 59% win probability, while the Giants hold a 41% chance of pulling off the upset. The model also highlights New England’s strength in run defense (ranked 2nd in the NFL) and points allowed (4th), which could pose significant challenges for the Giants’ offense.

Meanwhile, DraftKings reports that spread tickets are running almost even, with a slight lean toward the Giants, who are also landing 63% of the spread money. This suggests that while the public is backing the Patriots, experienced bettors see value in the Giants’ ability to keep the game close.

Key Player Matchups and Injuries

The return of Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart from a concussion is a major boost for New York. Dart, who has thrown 13 total touchdowns versus just two giveaways in his previous five starts, will look to exploit a Patriots defense that, while formidable, has shown vulnerability in recent weeks. His ability to protect the ball and extend drives will be critical against a New England team that thrives on turnovers and quick defensive stops.

On the Patriots’ side, MVP candidate Drake Maye continues to lead the NFL in both passing yards and completion percentage. Maye’s efficiency, combined with the emergence of rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson—who has averaged 108 scrimmage yards and five total touchdowns over his last three games—gives New England a balanced offensive attack. However, the Patriots’ offensive line has been hit by injuries, with left tackle Will Campbell and guard Jared Wilson both sidelined. This could force New England to rely more on short passes and a heavy dose of Henderson, potentially limiting their explosive play potential.

The Giants’ defensive line, led by Dexter Lawrence, will aim to disrupt Maye’s rhythm and force turnovers. Lawrence, who has been a consistent force in the trenches, could exploit the Patriots’ weakened offensive line and create opportunities for New York’s secondary to make plays.

Injury Report

• New York Giants: QB Jaxson Dart (concussion) is cleared to play. WR Wan’Dale Robinson (ankle) is questionable, while LB Bobby Okereke (shoulder) is expected to start.
• New England Patriots: LT Will Campbell (knee) and G Jared Wilson (ankle) are out. RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) is probable.

Expert Predictions and Betting Trends

Expert analysts are divided on the outcome of this game. CBS Sports’ projection model favors the Patriots to win outright but suggests that the Giants have a strong chance to cover the spread. The model’s simulations indicate that New England’s winning streak could extend to 10 games, but the margin of victory may not be as large as the spread suggests.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Patriots a 56.4% chance of winning by an average of 2.6 points, while analysts like Seth Walder and Eric Moody have offered contrasting predictions: Walder picks the Giants to win 26-24, while Moody forecasts a 31-21 Patriots victory. This disparity underscores the unpredictability of the game, particularly given the Giants’ recent competitiveness despite their record.

Betting trends further highlight the potential for an upset. The Giants have covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games, and their ability to stay within striking distance of superior teams has made them a popular underdog pick. Meanwhile, the Patriots have gone 7-2 against the spread during their nine-game winning streak, but their recent struggles to cover large spreads (1-1-1 as a 7-point favorite or more) could make this a closer game than expected.

Notable Betting Trends

• The Patriots are 8-3-1 ATS in the first half this season, indicating strong starts.
• The Giants are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games with Dart as the starting quarterback.
• The under has hit in 4 of the last 5 Monday Night Football games, suggesting a potential low-scoring affair.
• Sharp bettors are backing the Giants to cover, with 63% of the spread money on New York.

Game Preview and Strategic Outlook

The Patriots enter this game as the NFL’s hottest team, but their recent performances have shown signs of vulnerability. In Week 12, they narrowly escaped with a win against the Bengals, failing to cover the spread for the first time in several weeks. This has raised questions about whether they can maintain their dominance against a Giants team that, despite its record, has played competitively in recent outings.

For the Giants, the return of Dart provides a much-needed spark. His ability to manage the game and avoid turnovers will be crucial, especially against a Patriots defense that ranks among the league’s best in forcing mistakes. New York’s coaching staff has also adopted a more conservative approach, emphasizing ball control and minimizing risks—a strategy that could help them stay within reach of the Patriots.

New England, meanwhile, will look to establish Henderson early and often. With their offensive line banged up, the Patriots are likely to rely on a run-heavy approach to control the clock and limit the Giants’ offensive opportunities. Maye’s efficiency in the passing game will be key, but he may need to take fewer downfield shots and focus on high-percentage throws to sustain drives.

Coaching and Game Plan

• Giants: Expect a balanced attack with an emphasis on short passes and establishing the run. Dart’s mobility could also be a factor, as he looks to extend plays and avoid sacks.
• Patriots: Look for heavy usage of Henderson and a focus on controlling the tempo. Maye will need to be precise in his throws and avoid the turnovers that have plagued the Patriots in recent weeks.

Player Props and Best Bets

For bettors looking to capitalize on player props, TreVeyon Henderson’s rushing yards (Over 60.5 at -111) and Drake Maye’s passing yards (Over 250.5 at -120) are among the most popular options. Henderson’s recent form and the Patriots’ likely game plan make him a strong candidate to exceed his rushing yard total, while Maye’s consistency as a passer suggests he could surpass his yardage mark even in a run-heavy offense.

Other notable props include:

• Jaxson Dart Over 20.5 rushing yards (-115): Dart’s mobility and the Giants’ emphasis on extending drives make this a realistic target.
• Anytime touchdown scorer: Rhamondre Stevenson (+110): Stevenson’s role as a red-zone threat could pay off, especially if the Patriots struggle to finish drives.
• Under 46.5 total points (-108): Both teams prefer a methodical, clock-controlling style, which could keep the scoring below the total.

Final Predictions and Picks

While the Patriots are the clear favorites, the Giants’ recent form against the spread and the return of Dart make them an intriguing underdog. The most likely scenario is a Patriots win by a narrow margin, with the Giants covering the spread and the total points falling just below 46.5.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Giants 23

Best Bet: Giants +7.5 (-115)

Over/Under Pick: Under 46.5 (-108)

Player Prop Pick: TreVeyon Henderson Over 60.5 rushing yards (-111)

How to Watch

• Date: Monday, December 1, 2025
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
• TV: ESPN
• Stream: FuboTV, ESPN+

Conclusion

The NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football matchup between the Giants and Patriots promises to be a compelling contest, with the Patriots looking to extend their winning streak and the Giants aiming to play spoiler. While New England’s talent and form make them the favorites, the Giants’ resilience against the spread and the return of key players could make this a closer game than many expect. For bettors, the Giants +7.5 and the under 46.5 offer the best value, while player props like TreVeyon Henderson’s rushing yards present additional opportunities.

As always, stay updated with the latest injury reports and betting trends leading up to kickoff, as these factors could significantly impact the outcome of the game.